The world is focused on oil prices right now. That’s understandable, given the uncertainties of the Iran war. However, the global energy landscape is shifting toward renewable energy. And so, along with concerns over oil supplies, policymakers must also confront a rapidly evolving competition for high-tech batteries.
There’s a similarity between oil and batteries in global markets. Fifty years ago, the United States was held captive by OPEC for much of its oil imports. Today, lead-acid and lithium-ion batteries have become indispensable — since they’re foundational to both automobiles and electric grid storage. Unfortunately, the United States is now heavily dependent on China for the supply chains needed to make these technologies possible.
Realistically, it’s not the batteries that are the issue. Instead, it’s the refining and processing that transform raw minerals into battery-grade inputs that have become such an Achilles’ heel for the United States.
Consider the modern lead-acid battery. Even with America’s leadership in manufacturing — and a 99 percent recycling rate for lead — the United States still depends on China for the refining of antimony, a key battery input.
In lithium-ion batteries, China enjoys a similar level of dominance. Beijing has come to dominate lithium chemical conversion, nickel and cobalt refining, graphite processing and manganese sulfate production.
China now refines 59 percent of global lithium, 86 percent of nickel, 73 percent of cobalt, 90 percent of graphite and 75 percent of antimony. That gives Beijing a lot of leverage — something it used from 2023 to 2025, when it restricted exports of gallium, graphite and germanium.
The price shocks that followed these export restrictions demonstrate why batteries are merely the “canary in the coal mine” of China’s chokehold. By controlling the processing of rare-earth metals and critical minerals, Beijing can dictate terms — and strangle America’s military manufacturing and high-tech production at will.
China used leverage by restricting antimony exports in 2024 and 2025. Global supplies fell sharply, and prices surged almost 200 percent. That ratcheted up the overall price of antimony, hurting lead-acid battery makers in the United States.
Essentially, a single processing dependency can now disrupt America’s transportation fleets, logistics systems, data centers and military-related infrastructure. That’s because all of these technologies depend on reliable battery systems.
It’s an intolerable situation for the United States to be so beholden to Beijing. That’s why, with global tensions soaring, Congress must get on a wartime footing and start rebuilding domestic U.S. extraction, processing and refining of key minerals. The clock is ticking, since China has already consolidated its hold over the midstream stages of battery supply chains.
Helpfully, the United States possesses tremendous mineral reserves. And critical minerals — such as lithium, nickel, cobalt, graphite and manganese — are mined in the United States and around the world. Extracting these raw materials still means little without domestic refining capacity.
China has a big head start, given its consolidation over refining and processing. Even when minerals are mined globally, they’re often shipped to China for refining. And then they’re sold back to Western manufacturers as battery-grade materials. Such a circuitous production route gives Beijing the leverage to disrupt or manipulate supply chains at any time.
If China did halt mineral exports, it would affect far more than U.S. battery production and energy storage. Supply chain chokepoints would also hamper U.S. military production of munitions, missile guidance, aircraft, naval platforms and communications systems.
Washington must intensify efforts to rebuild domestic critical mineral supply chains. Recent initiatives such as Project Vault — a public-private effort to create a U.S. strategic critical minerals reserve — mark a helpful start. Congress should anchor long-term demand and investment in new refining and processing capacity. In particular, that means ensuring China-controlled mineral processors can’t benefit from U.S. tax incentives.
Equally important will be the integration of recycling and allied processing to help expand key supplies. Congress should also incentivize applied research and innovation to develop, manufacture and recycle next-generation battery technologies domestically.
Overall, the United States is not resource-poor; it’s processing-constrained. Reversing this vulnerability requires a coordinated effort to rebuild domestic and allied mineral processing and refining. In a time of tense global conflict, this is an industrial and national security necessity.
Mihir Torsekar is a senior economist at the Coalition for a Prosperous America. He wrote this for InsideSources.com. More by Mihir Torsekar
