Participants
Mihir Torsekar — Senior Economist, Coalition for a Prosperous America (Host)
Andrew Rechenberg —Senior Economist, Coalition for a Prosperous America (Co-host)
Major General Bill Crane(USA, Ret.) — Former Commanding General, West Virginia National Guard; Board Member, Responsible Battery Coalition
Rear Admiral Peter Brown(USCG, Ret.) — Vice Chair, RBC Critical Minerals Leadership Roundtable; Former Deputy Assistant to the President for Homeland Security for President Trump
Mihir Torsekar
Welcome to The Big Three from the Coalition for a Prosperous America, where each week we break down the threebiggest stories shaping U.S. trade, industrial policy, and the American economy. Today we have two special guests joining us to discuss the majorissues raised in a report that CPA recently released alongside the Responsible Battery Coalition. The report is titled "Wartime Footing: How the UnitedStates Can Reverse China's Dominance of Battery Mineral Processing."
Our guests are two distinguished public servants who have dedicated their careers to American national security.First is Major General Bill Crane, U.S. Army (Ret.), who formerly served as the Commanding General of the West Virginia National Guard and has worked directlywith Taiwanese forces on irregular warfare preparedness. He currently serves on the Responsible Battery Coalition's board. We're also joined by Rear AdmiralPeter Brown, U.S. Coast Guard (Ret.), Vice Chair of the RBC Critical Minerals LeadershipRoundtable, who brings decades of experience in maritime strategy and defenseinfrastructure. Gentlemen, thank you for joining us. Before we dive in, isthere anything you'd like to add about your backgrounds or your work with the RBC?
Major General Bill Crane (USA, Ret.)
Thank you. My focus has alwaysbeen on critical infrastructure, particularly through my role as Commanding General of the National Guard. My primary concern has always been ensuring thatWest Virginians — and Americans broadly — experience the least disruption possible to their daily lives. Working with the Responsible Battery Coalitionand deepening my understanding of critical minerals and rare earth elements hasreinforced that commitment. You can't have a strong national defense without astrong economy, and ensuring we maintain the manufacturing capacity and supplychains to support both is essential.
Rear Admiral Peter Brown (USCG, Ret.)
Thank you, Mihir, and thanks toCPA for hosting and for writing this report. At the Responsible Battery Coalition, our Critical Minerals Roundtable focuses on the national securityimplications of the battery supply chain — particularly lead acid batteries, which we'll discuss in more detail. My perspective has been shaped by my timein the Coast Guard, working in homeland security, and then serving in the firstTrump administration as the President's Homeland Security Advisor. In thatrole, I came to appreciate firsthand the deep interconnection between nationalsecurity and our economic and commercial relationships. In the currentadministration, those connections are now explicitly elevated to the same levelas diplomatic and military considerations — and I think that's exactly right,because we are engaged in irregular warfare with an adversary that seeks todominate us.
Mihir Torsekar
Let's start with the first ofour three topics: China's midstream chokehold and why mineral processing is the critical battleground for lead acid battery manufacturing. But first — why arelead acid batteries so important to national security and the broader economy?
Rear Admiral Peter Brown (USCG, Ret.)
Lead acid batteries areeverywhere. They're in agriculture equipment, in every car and truck on theroad, in backup power systems for hospitals, data centers, and militaryinstallations. This is a $30 billion domestic industry with operations across 38 states, generating roughly $3 billion in tax revenue and supportingthousands of jobs. The United States also has a 99% lead recycling rate — one of the most successful circular economies in all of manufacturing. Andcritically, we have a strong domestic position in this technology. But if we don't maintain it — especially the antimony supply required in lead acidbattery chemistry — we risk losing that dominance to an adversary. It would be just another industry ceded to China.
Mihir Torsekar
Right — and when people hear"battery supply chain," they tend to think of lithium-ion batteries for EVs or consumer electronics. But lead acid batteries are really theworkhorse of the American economy. The problem, as you mention, comes down to antimony. Why is antimony such a chokepoint?
Major General Bill Crane (USA, Ret.)
It's a processing problem. Wedon't have sufficient domestic processing capacity for antimony — and it's notjust batteries. Antimony is critical for our defense systems as well. I oftenask: would we let China build our F-35s? Of course not. But if you trace anF-35 back through its supply chain, you find rare earth elements and criticalminerals at every stage. When we allow an adversary to control the processingo f those materials, we're effectively handing them leverage over our weapons systems. Bringing that processing back to the United States is a genuine national security imperative.
Mihir Torsekar
General Crane, you witnessed the consequences of this kind of dependency firsthand during COVID — with shortagesof masks, gowns, and gloves. How does that experience inform the challenge of standing up domestic mineral processing capacity?
Major General Bill Crane (USA, Ret.)
The COVID experience was a clear warning. When we couldn't source protective equipment, we made the decision inWest Virginia to purchase manufacturing equipment and produce our own. But even then, the machines we needed to manufacture those goods also came from China.That's the depth of the dependency. We have to be able to build our own machines so we can always produce what we need — especially in the domains ofnational security and public safety. The timeline for building that capacity islong, and we can't wait for a crisis to start.
Mihir Torsekar
Admiral Brown, China's influenceextends beyond mineral processing into ports, shipping, and global logistics. How do those layers compound the midstream vulnerabilities we've identified in the report?
Rear Admiral Peter Brown (USCG, Ret.)
This is a problem that AlexanderHamilton actually foresaw at the founding of the country. In Federalist Papers11 and 12, he argued that the United States must not remain a raw materialsexporter, because selling raw materials to economic adversaries — allowing them to manufacture, add value, and sell back to us at prices of their choosing —leaves us vulnerable both economically and from a security standpoint. That principle applies directly today.
We have substantial mineral oredeposits in the United States, Canada, and nearby countries. But over decades, misguided bets on global free trade hollowed out our domestic processingindustry and placed that leverage in the hands of our adversary. China has already demonstrated willingness to weaponize that leverage: they temporarilycut off antimony exports, spiking global prices and disrupting production.
Beyond processing, China now controls significant portions of global shipping, shipbuilding, and portfacilities — including, most recently, major ports in Panama and Peru. When raw materials need to move from North or South America to processing facilities inAsia and then return as finished products, China effectively holds veto power over those transactions at both the processing and transportation levels. Wehave placed multiple points of vulnerability in our adversary's hands througheconomic negligence.
Mihir Torsekar
The port in Peru is particularly striking — a megaport where, according to Peruvian courts, the government ofPeru has no authority to regulate or monitor the operations of the Chinese corporation running it.
Rear Admiral Peter Brown (USCG, Ret.)
Exactly. When it comes to the Chinese government or Chinese-affiliated companies, the framing matters. When they say "investment," we should hear "infiltration." Whenthey say "employment," we should understand the espionage risk. Whenthey say "commerce," we should recognize that what they're exportingto the Western Hemisphere is not simply trade — it's strategic positioning. Amegaport in the Western Hemisphere that can extract critical minerals fromLatin America while potentially serving Chinese military logistics interests isnot a commercial relationship in any ordinary sense.
Mihir Torsekar
This brings us to the secondissue: national security readiness, surge capacity, and what the report identifies as the Defense Logistics Agency gap. We have virtually no domesticrefining or mining capacity for antimony. China has already demonstrated itwill weaponize that dependency. Admiral Brown, from a naval and Pacificcontingency standpoint, how critical is domestic refining capacity to sustaining operations beyond the initial phase of a conflict?
Rear Admiral Peter Brown (USCG, Ret.)
The lesson here comes from World War II. Germany was technologically sophisticated — nearly on par with theUnited States in many areas. What gave the U.S. its decisive advantage was sheer productive capacity. We could simply out-produce our adversaries atscale. That's how Germany and Japan were defeated.
Today, the U.S. retains atechnological edge over China, but that edge is increasingly a veneer. Underneath it is very limited manufacturing and regenerative capacity — andsome of that capacity is actually controlled by our adversary. The ability torapidly regenerate stockpiles of critical munitions, starter batteries forvehicles and vessels, uninterrupted power supplies, and other essentials thatkeep our weapon systems operational — that capability has been offshored through misguided bets on global free trade.
Over the past few decades,capital and manufacturing capacity migrated away from high-wage, high-regulation Western democracies toward lower-cost environments in Asia and Africa. In doing so, we lost control over our ability to regenerate military capacity. That is the core vulnerability.
Mihir Torsekar
General Crane, the reportdiscusses Beijing's "gray zone" strategy — operating below the threshold of conventional conflict to coerce and influence. Can you explain what that looks like in this context?
Major General Bill Crane (USA, Ret.)
Consider the cranes at our own ports — the equipment used to offload cargo. Those cranes came from China, andthey were found to contain embedded communication devices. Everything China sends here serves as a potential sensor, a means of gathering intelligence andgaining operational advantage.
We continue to allow their equipment and products into our infrastructure while relying on internationaltrade frameworks that they manipulate to their advantage. If China were to cross the Taiwan Strait tomorrow, the way of life for Americans would changedramatically. We have to ensure we have the manufacturing capacity to ramp up production of weapon systems rapidly. We used to dig coal in southern West Virginia, make steel from it, and build the weapons and infrastructure thiscountry needed. We have to do the equivalent today with critical minerals andrare earths — because they are the backbone of the digital economy and thelifeblood of modern defense systems. The power demands of highly advancedmilitary technology are enormous. We need the battery systems, the generationcapacity, and the uninterrupted communications infrastructure to ensure ourforces can maintain a clear operational picture of the entire battlefield.
Mihir Torsekar
So much of this requires a fundamental paradigm shift in how policymakers think about trade. For decades, the dominant framework elevated consumer welfare above all else — if the price at the register was low, the policy was working. But what we've been documenting at CPA, and what you gentlemen have outlined today, is that cheap imports fromChina have come at an enormous hidden cost: the erosion of our manufacturing base, our military preparedness, and our national security. We're starting tosee that bill come due.
Mihir Torsekar
That brings us to the third segment: what the administration is doing, and where we see the most promising policy tools. A central example is Project Vault. The Strategic Petroleum Reserve was created after the 1973 oil embargo as a national buffer againstsupply disruption. Project Vault applies that same logic to critical minerals.The administration has committed $10 billion from the Export Import Bank, plus $2 billion in private capital. Clarios, the largest lead acid batterymanufacturer in the U.S. and an RBC member, is a signatory. Why is thisinitiative so significant?
Major General Bill Crane (USA, Ret.)
Project Vault represents exactly the kind of public-private partnership we need. It creates a government-backedreserve of critical materials available during periods of price spikes orsupply disruptions, while also setting a price floor that gives companies theconfidence to invest. That price floor matters enormously. China's strategy, whenever the U.S. tries to restart domestic production, is to flood the marketand drive prices low enough that the investment can't be justified. A guaranteed floor changes that calculus. Tariffs play a similar role — they level a playing field that's been deliberately tilted against us. And it's not just about defense. When manufacturing communities lose a plant, you can'treplace that with a service sector job and expect the same standard of living.We have to take care of the American people — that's why our elected officialsand service members exist.
Rear Admiral Peter Brown (USCG, Ret.)
I'd add that Project Vault alsoincludes minimum off-take requirements, which give manufacturers certaintyabout demand — not just price. That's what generates real investment inmidstream processing and transportation capacity. And on the transportationside, the U.S. currently accounts for less than 1% of global commercialshipbuilding and shipping. When we send goods overseas, we are placing ournational security at risk because we don't control the vessels or the ports.
The broader principle here issustainability across generations. The Constitution's promise is to secure theblessings of liberty not just for ourselves, but for our posterity. The driveto minimize consumer prices is a short-term, generationally narrow goal. Whatwe should be building is a sustainable economic and industrial foundation thatserves Americans for decades to come. Project Vault, the Strategic PetroleumReserve, the maritime action plan for shipbuilding, and the tariff frameworkall reflect that longer-term orientation.
On the rules-based internationalorder: it only functions when all players abide by the same rules. Chinadoesn't. Chinese state-affiliated companies don't operate under the same profitimperatives as U.S. firms — they can sustain losses for years or decades inorder to capture market share. That asymmetry cannot be corrected by arulebook. I often say the rules-based international order is the Maginot Lineof the 21st century — a defensive system that only works if everyone agrees tohonor it. China clearly does not.
Mihir Torsekar
A good illustration of that isChina's $1.2 to $1.3 trillion trade surplus — something that would self-correctunder a genuine free trade system through currency adjustment. Instead, China'scurrency remains undervalued, functioning as a hidden export subsidy. The otherkey policy tool we highlight in the report is the 45X credit from the InflationReduction Act, which pays roughly 10% of domestic production costs for criticalminerals processed in the United States. The credit begins phasing out in 2030.Why does Congress need to extend it?
Major General Bill Crane (USA, Ret.)
45X gives manufacturers thecertainty they need to make long-term investment decisions. They're not goingto commit hundreds of millions of dollars to build a processing facility ifthey're not confident they can be profitable. The credit creates the conditionsfor that confidence. We're already seeing significant investment come back tothe United States — driven by a combination of 45X, tariffs, and theadministration's broader industrial policy posture. We need to continue thosepolicies. China provides zero-interest loans and production incentivesregardless of whether additional capacity is needed. We have to use our ownpolicy tools aggressively to compete, or we'll continue to see the samehollowing out we've experienced over the past thirty years.
Mihir Torsekar
That's the playbook China hasused so effectively — sustaining losses long enough that, after a decade ofsuppressed prices, they're the only player left in the market for refining orprocessing. That's exactly why we need stable, long-term incentive structures.
Major General Bill Crane (USA, Ret.)
And China goes into developingcountries knowing they're offering predatory terms — debt burdens that leavethose countries little choice but to comply. I'm glad to see the StateDepartment has started helping those countries understand what they're actuallysigning. China's strategy in those resource-rich nations is extraction, notpartnership.
Mihir Torsekar
As we wrap up — if you had asingle message for an influential policymaker, what would it be?
Rear Admiral Peter Brown (USCG, Ret.)
The irregular warfare hasalready begun. The conflict with Iran didn't start a few weeks ago — it started47 years ago, with decades of deliberate, patient erosion of American securitythrough proxy militias, direct action, and economic pressure. China is runninga version of that same playbook, with a different set of tactics. They are ateconomic war with the United States. Their fentanyl exports alone have killedhundreds of thousands of Americans and drained billions from our economy. Intrade, they are pursuing a strategy of capture without destruction — weakeningus to the point where we cannot effectively resist or disentangle ourselvesfrom the dependency they've created.
I'd also emphasize theenvironmental dimension. The Responsible Battery Coalition's 99%+ leadrecycling rate represents genuine environmental leadership — clean, closed-loopmanufacturing. When we offshore production to China or to countries with weakerenvironmental and labor protections, we don't eliminate the pollution; we justexport it. Keeping this manufacturing in the United States is both a securityand an environmental imperative. And the 45X extension is critical — this isnot a one-administration fix. It is a generational challenge, and we needgenerational solutions.
Major General Bill Crane (USA, Ret.)
I'd reinforce the environmentalpoint. When U.S. manufacturing moves to China or India, it moves to places thatgenerate energy from much dirtier coal and much less efficient technology. Ifglobal environmental outcomes matter to you, keeping clean manufacturing in theUnited States is essential.
And I keep coming back to what Iheard at the CPA conference in Florida. Two examples stayed with me: RevereWare — one of the oldest companies in America, a piece of our founding heritageas a copper manufacturer. And cabinet makers — small businesses in communitiesall across this country. If China dumps cheap cabinets into our market, thoseshops close, those workers have no options, and entire communities hollow out.We can't replace a manufacturing job with a service sector job and preserve thesame quality of life.
The bottom line for me is this:we have to raise the barriers to entry high enough that our manufacturers canremain competitive. That means tariffs, price floors, production incentives,and strategic reserves. It means making sure that my grandchildren, and theirgrandchildren, inherit the kind of country and standard of living thatAmericans have built and earned. That's what we're fighting for.
Andrew Rechenberg
The report does an excellent jobof separating the mining side of the supply chain from the processing side —two very different problems requiring very different policy responses. And itlays out clearly what a whole-of-supply-chain approach actually looks like:every step, every leverage point, and how each connects to national securityreadiness. That framework is what makes it such a useful document forpolicymakers.
Mihir Torsekar
Thank you both again for joining us. We put a great deal of work into this report and we're proud of it. We encourage listeners to read it in full.Until next week — take care
