Building alternative processing capacity is possible, but it takes time, money and dependable customers. Refineries need specialized chemistry, skilled workers, substantial energy and water supplies, careful waste handling and long-term contracts that protect investors when prices fall.
That last point is crucial. Chinese facilities benefit from scale and closely connected suppliers, while newer Western projects may be more expensive for years. Industry analysis from the Responsible Battery Coalition argues that China’s dominance in battery processing presents a national-security concern for the United States, particularly when critical materials can be restricted or redirected.
The numbers make a full separation look even less practical. GIS Reports says China could still account for more than 60 percent of refined lithium and cobalt production by 2035 under current policies. Its position in battery-grade graphite and rare earth magnet materials is expected to remain especially strong.
